Kursk

The latest development of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a shockingly successful military raid from Ukraine into the Russian state of Kursk. It was made possible by Putin’s hubris.

Originally, Putin didn’t want all of Ukraine, just a strip of it leading into the Crimean peninsula, which he had stolen a few years before. The invasion plan was to crush all the major cities and use the area as a resource pool and transportation hub for Moscow, when defensive forces and international support enabled the Ukrainians to fend off the attacks and push the Russians back across their lines. So now, all Putin cares about is the strip of the Ukraine he’s been able to hold, so he’s dropped his defensive posture outside of that area.

There’s a memory-flashback scene in the 1984 movie Terminator when the time-traveling character describes “the War”. It’s pure dystopia battle zone in the ruins of a city. It’s night, illuminated as if by lightning from the brief explosions all around. A handful of ragtag soldiers make meager attack upon the hordes of drones on the land and in the air. The sense of hopelessness is overwhelming.

The attack on Kursk has been in the form of a “drone division”.  I presume that this means that a group of drone pilots and mechanics in a fleet of trucks are driving near to their target area, unloading, launching, attacking, regrouping, and driving off again. When they attack at night, they are nearly invisible, and the sound, like so many giant hornets, must be unnerving. They are most likely using the latest in AI technology for navigation and targeting, and satellite networking to connect distant pilots.

In the last two weeks, Ukraine has captured over 1000 square kilometers of Kursk, dozens of communities, and hundreds of Russian soldiers. This implies that along with the drone operators, these divisions include infantry for mop up and control. It hasn’t just been about destroying airfields, like they did yesterday. Focusing on drone combat has created a new sort of phalanx that defeats the new Persians. 

Now just imagine being anywhere near an airfield under attack by a drone division. It’s night, illuminated as if by lightning from the brief explosions all around. A handful of soldiers make meager attack upon the hordes of drones. The sense of hopelessness is overwhelming.

Don’t look for a criminal mastermind behind the development of the drone army. Just as with the Schwarzenegger action film, the creators of doom did so in an attempt to create a safer future. The folks using drones in combat at the moment (and this includes the US to no small degree) argue that they’re both more effective in combat and they keep soldier’s lives safely away from the battlefield. Utilization of drones has transformed combat capabilities and turned pre-1950’s tech into rocks and sticks. 

Today we are seeing this new face of war as it sweeps through Kursk, with Russian officials able only to evacuate people away, as if from a natural disaster. This is forcing Putin’s hand to abandon Ukraine just to get out in front of the invading force. If he fails to do so soon, Russia might become infested with drone divisions, just scooting through the country, destroying airports and military depots where-ever they go. 

While this is all interesting and mildly entertaining with enough distance, the problem isn’t that we might be facing Ukrainian drone units, but instead the tech and process is going to be copied in a thousand ways and we’re going to be inundated by hordes of drones in probably just ten-to-fifteen years. So many cameras everywhere. I just hope that most of them come bearing packages and not cannons.